Programme Outline
Meeting Suite 1.54 | Meeting Suite 1.55 |
14:00 – 17:00 IAALS Board Meeting |
08:00 – 10:00 IAA Meeting 20 Pax |
10:00 – 12:00 IAA Meeting 10 Pax |
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15:00 – 18:00 PBSS Board Meeting |
AUDITORIUM 2 | ROOF TERRACE | MEETING BLOCK 1.61 & 1.62 | Meeting Block 1.63 & 1.64 | Meeting Suite 1.54 | Meeting Suite 1.55 |
Life (IAALS) Opening Ceremony 08:30 – 08:35: Welcome address by Gunn Albertsen |
Pensions (PBSS) Colloquium & Seminar Opening Ceremony 08:30 – 08:35: Welcome address by Abe Hernandez |
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Life (IAALS) Session 1 Chair: Gunn Albertsen |
Pensions (PBSS) Plenary Chair: Abraham Hernandez | ||||
08:45 – 09:15 56 – Future Actuary – Data scientist, coder, business leader, entrepreneur… (Louis Rossouw, South Africa) |
08:45 – 09:45 Pensions (PBSS) Plenary – Social Media: Walking the fine line between marketing tool or descructive force. Keynote Speaker (Emma Sadlier) |
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09:15 – 09:45 15 – A Neural Network Extension of the Lee-Carter Model to Multiple Populations (Ronald Richman, South Africa) |
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09:45 – 10:15 – Refreshment Break | |||||
Life (IAALS) Session 2 Chair: Thomas Behar |
Pensions (PBSS) Session 1 Chair: Costa Economou | IACA Opening plenary and Session 1 | ASTIN Workshop – Reserving | ||
10:15 – 11:00 92 – Impaired Lives Insurability: Dawn of a new era (Taurayi Chinowona, South Africa) |
10:15 – 10:45 24 – A goals-based investment framework for defined-contribution retirement funds (Shaun Levitan, South Africa) |
10:15 – 10:20 Welcome address by Cathy Lyn |
10:15 – 13:30 • Development triangles • Case reserves • IBNR, IBNYR and IBNER • Common deterministic methods (chain ladder, Borhnuetter-Ferguson, etc.) • The need for stochastic methods • The need for individual claims development Lecturer: Roger Hayne |
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11:00 – 11:45 102 – Declining mortality improvements – the UK story (Aisling Kennedy, UK) |
10:45 – 11:15 44 – Operationalising Individualised Defined Contribution Investment Strategies (Brnic van Wyk, Australia) |
10:20 – 13:30 143-Diversity in the Actuarial Profession (Cathy Lyn, Jamaica, Marjorie Ngwenya, UK, Memory Zimba & Peter Withey, South Africa) |
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11:15 – 11:45 80 – NDC Schemes and Heterogeneity in Longevity: Proposals for Redesign (Jennifer Alonso-García, The Netherlands) |
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11:45-12:00 Transition Time | |||||
Life (IAALS) Session 3 Chair: Lars Pralle |
Pensions (PBSS) Session 2 Chair: Henre Prinsloo | ||||
12:00 – 12:45 REMOTE 53 – PARS, Machine learning for valuation steering (Alexandre Allegrezza, Switzerland) |
12:00 – 12:30 62 – Minimum Pension and Longevity Risk: A Solution for Notional Defined Contribution Pension Schemes (Séverine Arnold, Switzerland) |
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12:45 – 13:30 154- Risk Alchemy and Liquidity Management (Herman Kalmer) |
12:30 – 13:00 65 – The way of the corporate pension design from the viewpoint of risk sharing among employees and employers in the longevity society (Yohei Noda, Japan) |
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13:00 – 13:30 131- Exploring the impact of behavioural science on the persistency and profitability of voluntary retirement savings in the retail sector. (Nathea Nicolay) |
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13:30 – 14:30 Lunch Break (Strelizia / Jasminium / Clivia) | |||||
Life (IAALS) Session 4 Chair: Séverine Arnold |
Pensions (PBSS) Session 3 Chair: Stephen Walker | Consulting (IACA) Session 2 | ASTIN Workshop – Pricing | IAAHS Board Meeting | ASTIN Board Meeting |
14:30 – 15:15 27 -A Stochastic Investment Model for South African Use (Şule Şahin, UK & Shaun Levitan) |
14:30 – 15:00 105 – Professionalising actuarial advice to Defined Contribution Arrangements (Costa Economou, South Africa) |
14:30 – 16:00 137-United Nations Sustainable Development Goals Marjorie Ngwenya, UK, Maria Fernanda Salas, Mexico and Ken Buffin, USA) & Ron Mukanya , South Africa) |
14:30 – 18:00 Data Rate Adequacy Model Design Case Study Lecturer: Axel Wolfstein |
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15:15 – 16:00 136- Projecting Longevity and Mortality Using Stochastic Models. (Marc Slutzky) |
15:00 – 16:00 Professionalism Case Studies presented by ASSA PMB – “Brandon Does Diffraction” (Niel Fourie, South Africa) |
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16:00 – 16:30 Refreshment Break (Strelitzia / Jasminium / Clivia) | |||||
Life (IAALS) Session 5 Chair: Andrew Gladwin |
Pensions (PBSS) Session 4 & Seminar Closing Chair: Natasha Huggett Henchie | Consulting (IACA) Session 3 Chair: Timothy Vieyra | ASTIN Workshop – Pricing | ||
16:30 – 17:15 90 – African Economic Basis Survey (Morne de Vos, South Africa) |
16:30 – 17:15 130- De-Risking (Abraham Hernández, Portugal) |
16:30 – 18:00- REMOTE 144- Making our voice heard: A more prominent role for the Actuarial Profession in public policymaking.(Sherry Chan, USA, Timothy Vieyra, South Africa, Lusani Mulaudzi, South Africa, Sharon Giffen, Canada, Barbara DAmbrogi-Ola, Finland & Senator John Liu, USA) |
16:30 – 18:00 (Continued) |
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17:15 – 18:00 98 – Practical Issues in Applying IFRS 17 in Developing Countries (Kyle Rudden, Trinidad & Tobago) |
17:15 – 18:00 34 – Defined Benefit Pension Plan Funding and the Role of Actuaries (Charles Cowling, UK) |
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18:00 – 18:05 – Closing remarks by Natasha Huggett Henchie |
AUDITORIUM 2 | ROOF TERRACE | MEETING BLOCK 1.61 & 1.62 | Meeting Block 1.63 & 1.64 | Meeting Block 1.41 & 1.42 | Meeting Block 1.43 & 1.44 |
Joint Opening Ceremony | |||||
08:30 – 08:35 Welcome address by Peter Withey & Gábor Hanák |
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08:45 – 09:45 Joint Plenary Session – Keynote Speaker: Kuben Naidoo, Deputy Governor of the South African Reserve Bank “Financial Sector Supervision and its link to the South African Economy” |
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09:45 – 10:15 Refreshment Break (Strelitzia / Jasminium / Clivia) | |||||
Life (IAALS) Session 6 Chair: Makhosi Ncube | Pensions (PBSS) Session 5 Chair: Abraham Hernandez | Non-Life (ASTIN) Session 1 Chair: Frank Cuypers |
Non-Life (ASTIN) Session 2 Chair: Agnieszka Izabelle Bergel |
Health (IAAHS) Session 1 Chair: Adrian Baskir | Consulting (IACA) Session 4 |
10:15 – 10:45 71 – The Actuary at the Kraal (Zandile Gobe, South Africa) |
10:15 – 10:45 66 – Measuring Pension Plan Risk from an Economic Capital Perspective (Aniketh Pittea, UK) |
10:15 – 10:45 2 – AI in Actuarial Science (Ronald Richman, South Africa) |
10:15 – 10:45 28 – From the Chain Ladder to Individual Claims Reserving using Machine Learning techniques (Alessandro Carrato, Germany) |
10:15 – 11:00 18 – The modern actuary in healthcare – how can we help public healthcare systems under strain? (Tanya Hayward, UK; Lisa Morgan, Switzerland; & Alison Counihan, Dubai) |
11:15 – 12:15 Whistle Blowing – A Dilemma? Niel Fourie, South Africa ), Rob Rusconi & Roland van den Brink |
10:45 – 11:15 70 – An Evaluation of Machine Learning Techniques On Class Imbalanced Data (Kwanda Sydwell Ngwenduna, South Africa & Rendani Mbuvha, South Africa) |
10:45 – 11:15 74 – Consideration of benefit adjustment system in Japan’s Risk-Sharing Corporate Pension (Satoshi Fukumoto, Japan) |
10:45 – 11:15 20 – Unravelling black box machine learning technique predictions using biplots (Adriaan Rowan, South Africa) |
10:45 – 11:15 88 – Big Data Analytics as an opportunity for Fraud Management in the Insurance Sector (Joseph Gitonga, Kenya) |
11:00 – 11:45 115 – Pre-funding of Healthcare Benefits After Retirement (Ibrahim Muhanna, Lebanon) |
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11:15 – 11:45 57 – The Journey Through the Line Bruce Robertson & Michael Prodehl, South Africa) |
11:15 – 11:45 100 – Good and bad of the Automatic Balancing Mechanism of Japan’s Public Pension Plans (Nobuhiro Shimizu, Japan) |
11:15 – 12:15 ASTIN AGM |
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11:45 – 12:15 Comfort break |
11:45 – 12:15 PBSS AGM |
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12:15 – 13:15 Lunch Break (Strelitzia / Jasminium / Clivia) | |||||
Life (IAALS) Session 7 Chair: Darlington Chamburuka | Life (IAALS) Session 8 Chair: Adele Goosen | ||||
13:15 – 14:00 25 – Can life insurance ethically justify the discrimination in underwriting in South Africa? (Andries Francois Marais, South Africa) |
13:00 – 15:00 REMOTE Joint IASB / IAA Webinar on IFRS 17 covering IANIOO draft, ISAP4 re-exposure and development in IASB deliberations (Gabor Hanak,Darrel Scott, Derek Wright, David Finnis & Micheline Dionne) |
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14:00 – 14:45 124- Dynamic Risk Assessment (Andries Terblanche) |
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14:45 – 15:15 Refreshment Break | |||||
Life (IAALS) Session 9 & Seminar Closing Chair: Colin van Zyl | |||||
15:15 – 16:15 Professionalism Case studies presented by the ASSA PMB – “Brandon Does Diffraction” (Niel Fourie, South Africa) |
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16:15 – 16:45 149- Capital Management and Value Creation (Herman Kalmer) |
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16:45 – 16:50 Closing remarks by Colin van Zyl |
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16:50 – 17:30 Comfort Break | |||||
17:30 – 18:00 IAALS AGM |
AUDITORIUM 2 | ROOF TERRACE | Meeting Block 1.41 & 1.42 | Meeting Block 1.43 & 1.44 | Meeting Block 1.61 & 1.62 | Meeting Block 1.63 & 1.64 |
Life (IAALS) Session 10 Chair: Andrew Gladwin |
Non-Life (ASTIN) – Seminar Opening Chair: Frank Cuypers |
Health (IAAHS) Session 2 Chair: Christelle Dieudonné | Pensions (PBSS) Session 6 Chair: Brnic Van Wyk |
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08:45 – 09:15 3 – Life reserving portfolio by using mixted-Methods (Balde Alpha Mamoudou, Guinea) |
08:45 – 09:45 The big question regarding AI: “Have the humans lost?” – Keynote Speaker – Arthur Goldstuck (South Africa) |
08:45 – 09:45 29 – Role of the Health Care Actuary – Panel Discussion (Adrian Baskir –UK) |
08:45 – 09:15 48 – Notes on a mandatory fully funded pension system and an application for Greece (Georgios Symeonidis, Greece) |
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09:15 – 09:45 39 – Forward transition rates (Mogens Steffensen, Denmark) |
09:15 -09:45 2 – AI in Actuarial Science (Ronald Richman, South Africa) |
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09:45 – 10:15 Refreshment Break (Strelitzia / Jasminium / Clivia) | |||||
Life (IAALS) Session 11 Thomas Behar |
Non-Life (ASTIN) Session 3 Chair: Michiel Van Der Wardt |
Health (IAAHS) Session 3 Chair: Ibrahim Muhanna | Pensions (PBSS) Session 7 Chair: Abraham Hernandez | ||
10:15 -10:45 50- The Actuary’s Duty to the Public Interest (Simon Louw, South Africa) |
10:15 -10:45 7 – A Fuzzy Least Squares Estimation of a Hybrid log-Poisson Regression and its Goodness of Fit for Loss Reserves in Insurance (Woundjiague Apollinaire, Kenya) |
10:15 -11:00 30 – Anti-selection in Health Insurance (Roseanne Harris, SA) |
10:15 -10:45 51 – Is the pension system relevant to the migration decision? A study of the Brazilian workers moving to Spain or to Portugal (Luís Eduardo Afonso, Brasil) |
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10:45 -11:15 121 – Generalized Binomial Estimator: a bridge between Actuarial Science and Data Science (Ramain Meridoux, France) |
10:45 -11:15 9 – Impact of an aggregation tree over the skewness of the final risk distribution (Eric Dal Moro, Switzerland) |
11:00 -11:45 95 – Impact of improved lifestyle on management of chronic disease – can Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus be reversed? (Sarah Bennett – SA & Prof. Tim Noakes) |
10:45 -11:15 17 – A new notional defined contribution system for public pension schemes based on risk sharing (Hélène Morsomme, Belgium) |
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11:15-11:45 23 – The Importance of Internal Actuarial Governance (Edmond Vigoureux, South Africa) |
11:15 -11:45 122- ASTIN WP on Implications of IFRS on Non-Life Insurers, Products and Markets (Karl Meissner-Roloff, South Africa) |
11:15 -11:45 85 – An Analysis of Solvency and Sustainability of the United States Social Security System (Kenneth Buffin, United States of America) |
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11:45 – 12:00 Transition Time | |||||
Life (IAALS) Session 12 Gunn Albertsen |
Non-Life (ASTIN) Session 4 Chair: Kirsten Sasady |
Health (IAAHS) Session 4 Chair: Lisa Morgan | Pensions (PBSS) Session 8 Chair: Carl Hansen | Consulting (IACA) Session 5 | |
12:00 -12:45 Non-Life and Life 64- Growing Insurance Challenges Emerging Markets with a focus on Africa (Jaco van der Merwe, South Africa) |
12:00 -12:30 13 – Predictive analytics of insurance claims using multivariate decision trees (Emiliano Valdez, United States of America) |
12:00 -12:45 135- Aligning incentives: value-based purchasing (Shivani Ranchod, Yageshree Moodley & Kelly Chennells) |
12:00 -12:30 96 – Pension System in Algeria : a way of reform (Farid Flici, Algeria) |
12:00 – 13:30 145- Essence of Communication – Honing consulting skills (Caroline Gregoire, Germany, Nigel Sloam, UK, Vincent Heys, Canada & Susan Atkinson, South Africa) |
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12:45 -13:30 84 – Capital Optimisation for Shareholder Value Generation (Idelia Hoberg, South Africa) |
12:30 -13:00 21 – Modeling risks with cellular automata (Frank Cuypers, Switzerland) |
12:45 -13:30 140- Population Health Management – an international perspective (Kevin Manning, Ireland) |
12:30 -13:00 72 – Mortality by socio-economic class and its impact on the retirement schemes: How to render the systems fairer? (Anca Jijiie, Switzerland) |
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13:00 -13:30 69 – Estimation of foreseeable and unforeseeable risks in motor insurance (Alfredo Egidio dos Reis, Portugal) |
13:00 -13:30 38 – Theoretical Replacement Rates And Injured Workers in Italy (Raffaello Marcelloni, Italy) |
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13:30 – 14:30 Lunch Break (Strelitzia / Jasminium / Clivia) | |||||
Pensions (PBSS) Session 9 Chair: Nobuhiro Shimizu |
Non-Life (ASTIN) Session 5 Chair:Pierre Miehe |
Health (IAAHS) Session 5 Chair: Bernie Clarke | |||
14:30 – 15:00 82 – Solvency Analysis of Deferred Annuities (Khadija Gasimova, UK) | 14:30 – 15:00 19 – The Use of Big Data and the Role of Actuaries in Inclusive Insurance Markets (Cristina Mano, Brazil) |
14:30 – 15:15 139- Late joiner penalties as stipulated in the Medical Schemes Act (MSA) – how should these be structured? (Charlton Murove, South Africa) |
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15:00 – 15:30 54 – Dynamic pricing of disability risk using credibility theory: application in a life insurance company (Jimmy Paul, Norway) |
15:00 – 15:30 52 – A tractable method for unravelling and modelling unobservable or complex dependence drivers (with granular data) (Banjamin Avanzi, Australia) |
15:15 – 16:00 141- How actuaries can support Public Sector Health Schemes and contribute towards Universal Health Coverage. (Lisa Morgan, Switzerland) |
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15:30 – 16:00 73 – Desirable structure of DC Governance in Japan (Bui Nagashima, Japan) |
15:30-16:00 155- The Actuarial (r)evolution (Pierre Miehe) | ||||
16:00 – 16:30 Refreshment Break (Strelitzia / Jasminium / Clivia) | |||||
Pensions (PBSS) Session 10 & Closing Chair: Ken Buffin | Non-Life (ASTIN) Session 6 Chair: Agnieszka Izabelle Bergel |
Health (IAAHS) Session 6 Chair: Christine Fairall | Health (IAAHS) Session 7 Chair:Adrian Baskir | IACA Session 6 | |
16:30 – 17:00 33 – Mitigating the global pension crisis: a compilation of actuarial innovative ideas (Abraham Hernández, Portugal) |
16:30 – 17:30 Professionalism Case studies presented by ASSA PMB – “Brandon Does Diffraction” (Mickey Lowther, South Africa) |
16:30 – 17:15 16 – The financial impact of new private hospitals on the privately insured South African population. (Shirley Collie & Jared Champion) |
16:30 – 17:15 50- The Actuary’s Duty to the Public Interest (Simon Louw, South Africa) |
16:30 – 18:00 REMOTE 142- Addressing nutrition, climate change and developing economies simultaneously. (Cathy Lyn, Jamaica, Mike McLaughlin, USA , Mary McLaughlin, USA , Shubhash Gosine, Jamaica , Biggie Shiriyapenga , South Africa & Ron Mukanya. South Africa) |
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17:00 – 17:30 32 – Global Pension Solutions for Globetrotters (Carl Hansen, Geurnsey) |
17:15 – 18:00 123- Automating Reserving for optimal model selection. (Hannes van Rensburg, South Africa) |
17:15 – 18:00 151- Largest behaviour change study on physical activity – Vitality’s work with Apple Watch and its relevance to insurance (Andre Nepgen) |
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17:30 – 17:45 Closing remarks by Abraham Hernandez |
17:30 – 18:00 Closing remarks by Jaco van der Merwe |
AUDITORIUM 2 | ROOF TERRACE | MEETING BLOCK 1.61 & 1.62 | Meeting Block 1.63 & 1.64 |
Health (IAAHS) Session 8 & Seminar Opening Chair: Barry Childs | Non-Life (ASTIN) Session 7 Chair: Eric Dal Moro |
ASTIN Workshop – Solvency | |
08:30 – 08:35 Welcome address by Barry Childs |
08:45 – 09:15 10 – A Quasi Risk Factor Dependency Model for Non-Life Insurance Portfolios (Alessandro Ferriero, Spain) |
08:30 – 12:30 • Economic balance sheet • Measures of risk • Available risk capital • Required capital • Capital allocation and portfolio optimization Lecturer: Frank Cuypers |
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08:45 – 09:45 Health (IAAHS) Seminar –Keynote Speaker – Bruce Fordyce |
09:15 – 09:45 99 – Aggregation and Risk Measurement for a Portfolio of Exchangeable Bernoulli Risks, assuming Dependence Uncertainty (Etienne Marceau, Canada) |
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09:45 – 10:15 Refreshment Break (Strelitzia / Jasminium / Clivia) | |||
Health (IAAHS) Session 9 Chair: Barry Childs | Non-Life (ASTIN) Session 8 Chair: Agnieszka Izabelle Bergel |
Consulting (IACA) Session 7 | |
10:15 – 11:00 127 – Health reform options for South Africa (Barry Childs, SA) |
10:15 – 10:45 79 – Multivariate claim frequencies modelling in P&C insurance using multiple guarantees and multiple policyholders from the same household (Florian Pechon, Belgium) |
10:15 – 11:00 147- Actuaries and Affordable Housing in Africa. (Nyasha Mapolisa, South Africa & Johan Human, South Africa) |
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11:00 – 11:45 46 – International PMI vs Domestic PMI (Anne Hung, UK) |
10:45 – 11:15 87 – On The Necessity And Nature Of Standardising When Using Shrinkage Methods (Stefan W. Wetzel, Germany) |
11:00 – 11:45 Actuaries and Cyber Security (Nyahsa Mapolisa, South Africa & Ashleigh Theophanides, South Africa) |
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11:15 – 11:45 125- Dynamic and granular loss modeling embracing dependencies (Michal Pesta, Czech Republic) | |||
11:45 – 12:00 Transition Time | |||
Health (IAAHS) Session 10 Chair: Lusani Malaudzi | Non-Life (ASTIN) Session 9 Chair: Pierre Miehe |
Consulting (IACA) Session 8 | |
12:00 – 13:00 Professionalism case studies presented by the ASSA PMB – “Brandon Does Diffraction” (Mickey Lowther, South Africa) |
12:00 – 12:30 63 – The Genesis of Storm Clustering: What Impact on Reinsurance Treaties Hours Clause? (Vincent Noel & Marc Bagarry, France) |
12:00 – 13:30 148- The culture and purpose of The Modern Actuary. (Nyasha Mapolisa, South Africa, Timothy Vieyra, South Africa, Kyle Rudden, Trinidad, Renata De Leers , Togo, Sam Gutterman, USA) |
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12:30 – 13:00 58- A Standardized Machine Learning based approach to Conversion Rate Estimation (Vittorio Magatti, Italy) |
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13:00 – 13:30 2 – AI in Actuarial Science (Ronald Richman, South Africa) |
13:00 – 13:30 138- Credit default correlation modelling. Historic vs. Asset return calibration. (Peter Middelkamp & Marius Costeniuc) | ||
13:30 – 14:30 Lunch Break (Strelitzia / Jasminium / Clivia) | |||
Health (IAAHS) Session 11 Chair: Roseanne Harris | Non-Life (ASTIN) Session 10 Chair: Roger Hayne |
ASTIN Workshop – Reinsurance | |
14:30 – 15:15 133 – Internet of Medical Things (IoMT) & Health Care (Ashleigh Theophanides, SA) |
14:30 – 15:00 104 – A Quantile Mixing Approach for the Combination of Experts’ Models (Thierry COHIGNAC & Nabil Kazi-tani, France) |
14:30 – 16:30 • Why reinsurance • Basic forms of reinsurance (quota share, surplus, stop loss, excess of loss) • Elements of pricing • Long tailed lines of business • Alternative risk transfer Lecturers: Éric Dal Moro |
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15:15 – 16:00 GEMS Underwriting: a case study ( Karel Diedericks and Craig Getz, South Africa) |
15:00 – 15:30 119 – Managing Insurance Capital Standards with Limit Systems (Klaus-peter Nischke, Germany) |
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15:30 – 16:00 116 – Scenario Testing for Flatrated Fleets during the yearly price adjustment process – a practical example (Michael Klamser, Germany) |
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16:00 – 16:30 Refreshment Break (Strelitzia / Jasminium / Clivia) | |||
Health (IAAHS) Session 12 & Closing Chair: Shivani Ranchod | Consulting (IACA) Session 9 & Closing | Non-Life (ASTIN) Session 11 & Closing Chair: Frank Cuypers |
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16:30 – 17:15 134- Health Insurance across Africa: Not for the faint of heart (Warren Daly) |
16:30 – 18:00 146- Set up and operating a new consultancy. (Nigel Sloam, UK, Kyle Rudden, Trinidad, Ibrahim Muhanna, Lebanon & Lusani Mulaudzi, South Africa |
16:30 – 17:15 120 – Automated cars and insurance – results of joint Working Party of ASTIN & AIDA (Emiliano Valdez) |
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17:15 – 17:20 Closing remarks by Adrian Baskir |
17:15 – 17:20 Closing remarks by Frank Cuypers |
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Followed by a cocktail networking party – either on the patio or inside foyer (weather dependent) |
Provisional programme subject to change