Programme Outline

Meeting Suite 1.54 Meeting Suite 1.55
14:00 – 17:00
IAALS Board Meeting
08:00 – 10:00
IAA Meeting
20 Pax
10:00 – 12:00
IAA Meeting
10 Pax
15:00 – 18:00
PBSS Board Meeting
AUDITORIUM 2 ROOF TERRACE MEETING BLOCK 1.61 & 1.62 Meeting Block 1.63 & 1.64 Meeting Suite 1.54 Meeting Suite 1.55
Life (IAALS) Opening Ceremony
08:30 – 08:35: Welcome address by Gunn Albertsen
Pensions (PBSS) Colloquium & Seminar Opening Ceremony
08:30 – 08:35: Welcome address by Abe Hernandez
   
Life (IAALS) Session 1
Chair:  Gunn Albertsen
Pensions (PBSS) Plenary Chair: Abraham Hernandez    
08:45 – 09:15
56 – Future Actuary – Data scientist, coder, business leader, entrepreneur… (Louis Rossouw, South Africa)
08:45 – 09:45
Pensions (PBSS) Plenary – Social Media: Walking the fine line between marketing tool or descructive force.  Keynote Speaker (Emma Sadlier)
   
09:15 – 09:45
15 – A Neural Network Extension of the Lee-Carter Model to Multiple Populations (Ronald Richman, South Africa)
       
09:45 – 10:15 – Refreshment Break
Life (IAALS) Session 2
Chair:  Thomas Behar
Pensions (PBSS) Session 1 Chair: Costa Economou  IACA Opening plenary and Session 1 ASTIN Workshop – Reserving     
10:15 – 11:00
92 – Impaired Lives Insurability: Dawn of a new era (Taurayi Chinowona, South Africa)
10:15 – 10:45
24 –  A goals-based investment framework for defined-contribution retirement funds (Shaun Levitan, South Africa)
10:15 – 10:20
Welcome address by Cathy Lyn  
10:15 – 13:30
• Development triangles
• Case reserves
• IBNR, IBNYR and IBNER
• Common deterministic methods (chain ladder, Borhnuetter-Ferguson, etc.)
• The need for stochastic methods
• The need for individual claims development
Lecturer: Roger Hayne
   
11:00 – 11:45
102 – Declining mortality improvements – the UK story (Aisling Kennedy, UK)
10:45 – 11:15
44 – Operationalising Individualised Defined Contribution  Investment Strategies (Brnic van Wyk, Australia)
10:20 – 13:30
143-Diversity in the Actuarial Profession (Cathy Lyn, Jamaica, Marjorie Ngwenya, UK, Memory Zimba & Peter Withey, South Africa)
   
11:15 – 11:45
80 – NDC Schemes and Heterogeneity in Longevity: Proposals for Redesign (Jennifer Alonso-García, The Netherlands)
   
11:45-12:00 Transition Time    
Life (IAALS) Session 3
Chair:  Lars Pralle
Pensions (PBSS) Session 2 Chair: Henre Prinsloo    
12:00 – 12:45 REMOTE
53 – PARS, Machine learning for valuation steering (Alexandre Allegrezza, Switzerland)
12:00 – 12:30
62 – Minimum Pension and Longevity Risk: A Solution for Notional Defined Contribution Pension Schemes (Séverine Arnold, Switzerland)
   
12:45 – 13:30
154- Risk Alchemy and Liquidity Management (Herman Kalmer)  
12:30 – 13:00
65 – The way of the corporate pension design from the viewpoint of risk sharing among employees and employers in the longevity society (Yohei Noda, Japan)
   
13:00 – 13:30
131- Exploring the impact of behavioural science on the persistency and profitability of voluntary retirement savings in the retail sector. (Nathea Nicolay)
   
13:30 – 14:30 Lunch Break (Strelizia / Jasminium / Clivia)
Life (IAALS) Session 4
Chair:  Séverine Arnold
Pensions (PBSS) Session 3 Chair: Stephen Walker Consulting (IACA) Session 2 ASTIN Workshop – Pricing IAAHS Board Meeting  ASTIN Board Meeting
14:30 – 15:15
27 -A Stochastic Investment Model for South African Use (Şule Şahin, UK & Shaun Levitan)
14:30 – 15:00
105 – Professionalising actuarial advice to Defined Contribution Arrangements (Costa Economou, South Africa)
14:30 – 16:00
137-United Nations Sustainable Development Goals Marjorie Ngwenya, UK, Maria Fernanda Salas, Mexico and Ken Buffin, USA) & Ron Mukanya , South Africa)
14:30 – 18:00
Data
Rate Adequacy
Model Design
Case Study

Lecturer: Axel Wolfstein

   
15:15 – 16:00
136- Projecting Longevity and Mortality Using Stochastic Models. (Marc Slutzky)
15:00 – 16:00
Professionalism Case Studies presented by
ASSA PMB – “Brandon Does Diffraction”
(Niel Fourie, South Africa)
16:00 – 16:30 Refreshment Break (Strelitzia / Jasminium / Clivia)
Life (IAALS) Session 5
Chair:  Andrew Gladwin
Pensions (PBSS) Session 4 & Seminar Closing Chair: Natasha Huggett Henchie Consulting (IACA) Session 3 Chair: Timothy Vieyra ASTIN Workshop – Pricing  
16:30 – 17:15
90 – African Economic Basis Survey (Morne de Vos, South Africa)
16:30 – 17:15
130- De-Risking (Abraham Hernández, Portugal)
16:30 – 18:00- REMOTE
144- Making our voice heard: A more prominent role for the Actuarial Profession in public policymaking.(Sherry Chan,
USA, Timothy Vieyra, South Africa, Lusani
Mulaudzi, South Africa, Sharon Giffen,
Canada, Barbara DAmbrogi-Ola, Finland &
Senator John Liu, USA)
16:30 – 18:00
(Continued)
 
17:15 – 18:00
98 – Practical Issues in Applying IFRS 17 in Developing Countries (Kyle Rudden, Trinidad & Tobago)
17:15 – 18:00
34 – Defined Benefit Pension Plan Funding and the Role of Actuaries  (Charles Cowling, UK)
 
  18:00 – 18:05 – Closing remarks by Natasha Huggett Henchie          
AUDITORIUM 2 ROOF TERRACE MEETING BLOCK 1.61 & 1.62 Meeting Block 1.63 & 1.64 Meeting Block 1.41 & 1.42 Meeting Block 1.43 & 1.44
Joint Opening Ceremony          
08:30 – 08:35
Welcome address by Peter Withey & Gábor Hanák
08:45 – 09:45
Joint Plenary Session – Keynote Speaker: Kuben Naidoo, Deputy Governor of the South African Reserve Bank
“Financial Sector Supervision and its link to the South African Economy”
09:45 – 10:15 Refreshment Break (Strelitzia / Jasminium / Clivia)      
Life (IAALS) Session 6 Chair: Makhosi Ncube   Pensions (PBSS) Session 5 Chair: Abraham Hernandez Non-Life (ASTIN) Session 1
Chair:  Frank Cuypers
Non-Life (ASTIN) Session 2
Chair: Agnieszka Izabelle Bergel 
Health (IAAHS) Session 1      Chair: Adrian Baskir  Consulting (IACA) Session 4
10:15 – 10:45
71 – The Actuary at the Kraal (Zandile Gobe, South Africa)
10:15 – 10:45
66 – Measuring Pension Plan Risk from an Economic Capital Perspective  (Aniketh Pittea, UK)
10:15 – 10:45
2 – AI in Actuarial Science (Ronald Richman, South Africa)
10:15 – 10:45
28 – From the Chain Ladder to Individual Claims Reserving using Machine Learning techniques (Alessandro Carrato, Germany)
10:15 – 11:00
18 – The modern actuary in healthcare – how can we help public healthcare systems under strain?
(Tanya Hayward, UK; Lisa Morgan, Switzerland; & Alison Counihan, Dubai)
11:15 – 12:15
Whistle Blowing – A Dilemma? Niel Fourie, South Africa ), Rob Rusconi & Roland van den Brink 
10:45 – 11:15
70 – An Evaluation of Machine Learning Techniques On Class Imbalanced Data
(Kwanda Sydwell Ngwenduna, South Africa & Rendani Mbuvha, South Africa)
10:45 – 11:15
74 –
Consideration of benefit adjustment system in Japan’s Risk-Sharing Corporate Pension
(Satoshi Fukumoto, Japan)
10:45 – 11:15
20 – Unravelling black box machine learning technique predictions using biplots (Adriaan Rowan, South Africa)
10:45 – 11:15
88 – Big Data Analytics as an opportunity for Fraud Management in the Insurance Sector (Joseph Gitonga, Kenya)
11:00 – 11:45
115 – Pre-funding of Healthcare Benefits After Retirement
(Ibrahim Muhanna, Lebanon)
11:15 – 11:45
57 – The Journey Through the Line Bruce Robertson & Michael Prodehl, South Africa)
11:15 – 11:45
100 – Good and bad of the Automatic Balancing Mechanism of Japan’s Public Pension Plans (Nobuhiro Shimizu, Japan)
11:15 – 12:15
ASTIN AGM
 
11:45 – 12:15
Comfort break
11:45 – 12:15
PBSS AGM
 
12:15 – 13:15 Lunch Break (Strelitzia / Jasminium / Clivia)      
Life (IAALS) Session 7 Chair: Darlington Chamburuka    Life (IAALS) Session 8 Chair: Adele Goosen        
13:15 – 14:00
25 – Can life insurance ethically justify the discrimination in underwriting in South Africa?  (Andries Francois Marais, South Africa)
13:00 – 15:00
REMOTE
Joint IASB / IAA Webinar on IFRS 17 covering IANIOO draft,
ISAP4 re-exposure and development in IASB deliberations (Gabor Hanak,Darrel Scott, Derek Wright, David Finnis & Micheline Dionne)
14:00 – 14:45
124- Dynamic Risk Assessment (Andries Terblanche)
14:45 – 15:15 Refreshment Break        
Life (IAALS) Session 9 & Seminar Closing Chair: Colin van Zyl          
15:15 – 16:15
Professionalism Case studies presented by the ASSA PMB –
“Brandon Does Diffraction” (Niel Fourie, South Africa)
16:15 – 16:45
149- Capital Management and Value Creation (Herman Kalmer)
16:45 – 16:50
Closing remarks by Colin van Zyl
16:50 – 17:30 Comfort Break        
17:30 – 18:00
IAALS AGM
         
AUDITORIUM 2 ROOF TERRACE Meeting Block 1.41 & 1.42 Meeting Block 1.43 & 1.44 Meeting Block 1.61 & 1.62 Meeting Block 1.63 & 1.64
Life (IAALS) Session 10
Chair:  Andrew Gladwin
Non-Life (ASTIN) – Seminar Opening
Chair:  Frank Cuypers
Health (IAAHS) Session 2 Chair: Christelle Dieudonné     Pensions (PBSS) Session 6 
Chair: Brnic Van Wyk 
 
08:45 – 09:15
3 – Life reserving portfolio by using mixted-Methods (Balde Alpha Mamoudou, Guinea)
08:45 – 09:45
The big question regarding AI:  “Have the humans lost?” – Keynote Speaker – Arthur Goldstuck (South Africa)
08:45 – 09:45
29 – Role of the Health Care Actuary – Panel Discussion (Adrian Baskir –UK)
08:45 – 09:15
48 – Notes on a mandatory fully funded pension system and an application for Greece
(Georgios Symeonidis, Greece)
09:15 – 09:45
39 – Forward transition rates (Mogens Steffensen, Denmark)
09:15 -09:45 
2 – AI in Actuarial Science (Ronald Richman, South Africa) 
09:45 – 10:15 Refreshment Break (Strelitzia / Jasminium / Clivia)
Life (IAALS) Session 11
Thomas Behar
Non-Life (ASTIN) Session 3
Chair: Michiel Van Der Wardt
Health (IAAHS) Session 3 Chair: Ibrahim Muhanna    Pensions (PBSS) Session 7 Chair: Abraham Hernandez   
10:15 -10:45
50- The Actuary’s Duty to the Public Interest (Simon Louw, South Africa)
10:15 -10:45
7 – A Fuzzy Least Squares Estimation of a Hybrid log-Poisson Regression and its Goodness of Fit for Loss Reserves in Insurance (Woundjiague Apollinaire, Kenya)
10:15 -11:00
30 – Anti-selection in Health Insurance
(Roseanne Harris, SA)
10:15 -10:45
51 – Is the pension system relevant to the migration decision? A study of the Brazilian workers moving to Spain or to Portugal (Luís Eduardo Afonso, Brasil)
10:45 -11:15
121 – Generalized Binomial Estimator: a bridge between Actuarial Science and Data Science (Ramain Meridoux, France)
10:45 -11:15
9 – Impact of an aggregation tree over the skewness of the final risk distribution (Eric Dal Moro, Switzerland)
11:00 -11:45
95 – Impact of improved lifestyle on management of chronic disease – can Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus be reversed?
(Sarah Bennett – SA & Prof. Tim  Noakes)
10:45 -11:15
17 – A new notional defined contribution system for public pension schemes based on risk sharing (Hélène Morsomme, Belgium)
11:15-11:45 
23 – The Importance of Internal Actuarial Governance (Edmond Vigoureux, South Africa)
11:15 -11:45
122- ASTIN WP on Implications of IFRS on Non-Life Insurers, Products and Markets (Karl Meissner-Roloff, South Africa)
  11:15 -11:45
85 – An Analysis of Solvency and Sustainability of the United States Social Security System (Kenneth Buffin, United States of America)
11:45 – 12:00 Transition Time
Life (IAALS) Session 12
Gunn Albertsen
Non-Life (ASTIN) Session 4
Chair: Kirsten Sasady
Health (IAAHS) Session 4 Chair: Lisa Morgan    Pensions (PBSS) Session 8 Chair: Carl Hansen         Consulting (IACA) Session 5
12:00 -12:45
Non-Life and Life
64- Growing Insurance Challenges Emerging Markets with a focus on Africa (Jaco van der Merwe, South Africa)
12:00 -12:30
13 – Predictive analytics of insurance claims using multivariate decision trees (Emiliano Valdez, United States of America)
12:00 -12:45
135- Aligning incentives: value-based purchasing  (Shivani Ranchod, Yageshree Moodley & Kelly Chennells)
12:00 -12:30
96 – Pension System in Algeria : a way of reform (Farid Flici, Algeria)
12:00 – 13:30
145- Essence of Communication – Honing consulting skills (Caroline Gregoire, Germany, Nigel Sloam, UK, Vincent Heys, Canada & Susan Atkinson, South Africa)
12:45 -13:30
84 – Capital Optimisation for Shareholder Value Generation (Idelia Hoberg, South Africa)
12:30 -13:00
21 – Modeling risks with cellular automata (Frank Cuypers, Switzerland)
12:45 -13:30
140- Population Health Management – an international perspective
(Kevin Manning, Ireland)
12:30 -13:00
72 – Mortality by socio-economic class and its impact on the retirement schemes: How to render the systems fairer? (Anca Jijiie, Switzerland)
13:00 -13:30
69 – Estimation of foreseeable and unforeseeable risks in motor insurance (Alfredo Egidio dos Reis, Portugal)
13:00 -13:30
38 – Theoretical Replacement Rates And Injured Workers in Italy (Raffaello Marcelloni, Italy)
13:30 – 14:30 Lunch Break (Strelitzia / Jasminium / Clivia)
Pensions (PBSS) Session 9 
Chair: Nobuhiro Shimizu
Non-Life (ASTIN) Session 5
Chair:Pierre Miehe
Health (IAAHS) Session 5 Chair: Bernie Clarke       
14:30 – 15:00 82 – Solvency Analysis of Deferred Annuities (Khadija Gasimova, UK)  14:30 – 15:00
19 – The Use of Big Data and the Role of Actuaries in Inclusive Insurance Markets  (Cristina Mano, Brazil)
14:30 – 15:15
139- Late joiner penalties as stipulated in the Medical Schemes Act (MSA) – how should these be structured? (Charlton Murove,
South Africa)
15:00 – 15:30
54 – Dynamic pricing of disability risk using credibility theory: application in a life insurance company (Jimmy Paul, Norway)
15:00 – 15:30
52 – A tractable method for unravelling and modelling unobservable or complex dependence drivers (with granular data) (Banjamin Avanzi, Australia)
15:15 – 16:00
141- How actuaries can support Public Sector Health Schemes and contribute towards Universal Health Coverage. (Lisa Morgan, Switzerland)
15:30 – 16:00
73 – Desirable structure of DC Governance in Japan (Bui Nagashima, Japan)
15:30-16:00 155- The Actuarial (r)evolution (Pierre Miehe) 
16:00 – 16:30 Refreshment Break (Strelitzia / Jasminium / Clivia)
Pensions (PBSS) Session 10 & Closing Chair: Ken Buffin Non-Life (ASTIN) Session 6
Chair: Agnieszka Izabelle Bergel
Health (IAAHS) Session 6 Chair: Christine Fairall  Health (IAAHS) Session 7 Chair:Adrian Baskir    IACA Session 6
16:30 – 17:00
33 – Mitigating the global pension crisis: a compilation of actuarial innovative ideas (Abraham Hernández, Portugal)
16:30 – 17:30
Professionalism Case studies
presented by ASSA PMB – “Brandon
Does Diffraction” (Mickey Lowther,
South Africa)
16:30 – 17:15
16 – The financial impact of new private hospitals on the privately insured South African population. (Shirley Collie & Jared Champion)
16:30 – 17:15
50- The Actuary’s Duty to the Public Interest (Simon Louw, South Africa)
  16:30 – 18:00  REMOTE
142- Addressing nutrition, climate change and developing economies simultaneously. (Cathy Lyn, Jamaica, Mike McLaughlin, USA , Mary McLaughlin, USA , Shubhash Gosine, Jamaica , Biggie Shiriyapenga , South Africa & Ron  Mukanya. South Africa)  
17:00 – 17:30
32 – Global Pension Solutions for Globetrotters (Carl Hansen, Geurnsey)
17:15 – 18:00
123- Automating Reserving for optimal model selection. (Hannes van Rensburg, South Africa)
17:15 – 18:00
151- Largest behaviour change study on physical activity – Vitality’s work with Apple Watch and its relevance to insurance (Andre Nepgen)
17:30 – 17:45
Closing remarks by Abraham Hernandez
17:30 – 18:00
Closing remarks by Jaco van der Merwe
AUDITORIUM 2 ROOF TERRACE MEETING BLOCK 1.61 & 1.62 Meeting Block 1.63 & 1.64
Health (IAAHS) Session 8 & Seminar Opening     Chair: Barry Childs  Non-Life (ASTIN) Session 7
Chair: Eric Dal Moro
  ASTIN Workshop – Solvency
08:30 – 08:35
Welcome address by  Barry Childs
08:45 – 09:15
10 – A Quasi Risk Factor Dependency Model for Non-Life Insurance Portfolios (Alessandro Ferriero, Spain)
  08:30 – 12:30
• Economic balance sheet
• Measures of risk
• Available risk capital
• Required capital
• Capital allocation and portfolio optimization

Lecturer: Frank Cuypers

08:45 – 09:45
Health (IAAHS) Seminar –Keynote Speaker – Bruce Fordyce
09:15 – 09:45
99 – Aggregation and Risk Measurement for a Portfolio of Exchangeable Bernoulli Risks, assuming Dependence Uncertainty (Etienne Marceau, Canada)
 
09:45 – 10:15 Refreshment Break (Strelitzia / Jasminium / Clivia)
Health (IAAHS) Session 9 Chair: Barry Childs  Non-Life (ASTIN) Session 8
Chair: Agnieszka Izabelle Bergel
Consulting (IACA) Session 7
10:15 – 11:00
127 – Health reform options for South Africa (Barry Childs, SA)
10:15 – 10:45
79 – Multivariate claim frequencies modelling in P&C insurance using multiple guarantees and multiple policyholders from the same household (Florian Pechon, Belgium)
10:15 – 11:00
147- Actuaries and Affordable Housing in Africa. (Nyasha Mapolisa, South Africa & Johan Human, South Africa)
11:00 – 11:45
46 – International PMI vs Domestic PMI
(Anne Hung, UK)
10:45 – 11:15
87 – On The Necessity And Nature Of Standardising When Using Shrinkage Methods (Stefan W. Wetzel, Germany)
11:00 – 11:45
Actuaries and Cyber Security (Nyahsa Mapolisa, South Africa  &
Ashleigh Theophanides, South Africa)
11:15 – 11:45                                                                    125- Dynamic and granular loss modeling embracing dependencies (Michal Pesta, Czech Republic)                                
11:45 – 12:00 Transition Time
Health (IAAHS) Session 10 Chair: Lusani Malaudzi  Non-Life (ASTIN) Session 9
Chair: Pierre Miehe
Consulting (IACA) Session 8
12:00 – 13:00
Professionalism case studies presented by
the ASSA PMB – “Brandon Does Diffraction”
(Mickey Lowther, South Africa)
12:00 – 12:30
63 – The Genesis of Storm Clustering: What Impact on Reinsurance Treaties Hours Clause? (Vincent Noel & Marc Bagarry, France)
12:00 – 13:30
148- The culture and purpose of The Modern Actuary. (Nyasha Mapolisa, South Africa, Timothy Vieyra, South Africa, Kyle Rudden, Trinidad, Renata De Leers , Togo, Sam Gutterman, USA)
12:30 – 13:00
58- A Standardized Machine Learning based approach to Conversion Rate Estimation (Vittorio Magatti, Italy)
13:00 – 13:30
2 – AI in Actuarial Science (Ronald Richman, South Africa)
13:00 – 13:30                           138- Credit default correlation modelling. Historic vs. Asset return calibration. (Peter Middelkamp & Marius Costeniuc)
13:30 – 14:30 Lunch Break (Strelitzia / Jasminium / Clivia)
Health (IAAHS) Session 11 Chair: Roseanne Harris Non-Life (ASTIN) Session 10
Chair: Roger Hayne
  ASTIN Workshop – Reinsurance
14:30 – 15:15
133 – Internet of Medical Things (IoMT) & Health Care (Ashleigh Theophanides, SA)
14:30 – 15:00
104 – A Quantile Mixing Approach for the Combination of Experts’ Models (Thierry COHIGNAC & Nabil Kazi-tani, France)
14:30 – 16:30
• Why reinsurance
• Basic forms of reinsurance (quota share, surplus, stop loss, excess of loss)
• Elements of pricing
• Long tailed lines of business
• Alternative risk transfer

Lecturers: Éric Dal Moro 

15:15 – 16:00
GEMS Underwriting: a case study ( Karel Diedericks and Craig Getz, South Africa) 
15:00 – 15:30
119 – Managing Insurance Capital Standards with Limit Systems (Klaus-peter Nischke, Germany)
15:30 – 16:00
116 – Scenario Testing for Flatrated Fleets during the yearly price adjustment process – a practical example (Michael Klamser, Germany)
16:00 – 16:30 Refreshment Break (Strelitzia / Jasminium / Clivia)
Health (IAAHS) Session 12 & Closing                                      Chair: Shivani Ranchod  Consulting (IACA) Session 9 & Closing Non-Life (ASTIN) Session 11 & Closing
Chair: Frank Cuypers
16:30 – 17:15
134- Health Insurance across Africa: Not for the faint of heart (Warren Daly) 
16:30 – 18:00
146- Set up and operating a new consultancy. (Nigel Sloam, UK, Kyle Rudden, Trinidad, Ibrahim Muhanna, Lebanon & Lusani Mulaudzi, South Africa
16:30 – 17:15
120 – Automated cars and insurance – results of joint Working Party of ASTIN & AIDA (Emiliano Valdez)
 
17:15 – 17:20
Closing remarks by Adrian Baskir
17:15 – 17:20
Closing remarks by Frank Cuypers
 
Followed by a cocktail networking party – either on the patio or inside foyer (weather dependent)  

Provisional programme subject to change